In the book, Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey Moore talked about technology adoption cycles. This landmark book went into great detail about how different groups of people adopt technology at different times, such as the innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Most noteworthy was the discussion about the gap between the early adopters and the early majority, which he termed “the chasm.” Crossing the chasm required a momentum, which resulted in the beginning of mass-market adoption. In other words, when a technology got hot.
No one really knows exactly when the “chasm” will appear or be crossed, but if we look at some available data about adoption, we can make some educated guesses when it comes to at least one key printing technology. Color inkjet presses emerged between 2006-2008 and have been increasing in speed and enhancing quality since then. Within the last year, there have been many announcements of companies that have purchased their first inkjet press and even some that have bought two or more.
According to Moore, the first adoption phase is the “innovator phase,” which for inkjet color presses may have occurred between 2006-2010, meaning that right now we are in the early adopter phase. Evidence to support this could be the Lyra Market research that found that last year 284 inkjet presses shipped, an 86% increase from the 167 shipped in 2009 and more than four times the 67 shipped in 2008. In all, that is more than 500 purchases in three years.
There are actually two chasms: The first is a small one between innovators and early adopters; the second is a larger gap between early adopters and mass-market acceptance. Using the Lyra research, the small gap may have already occurred and the second larger gap may still be ahead.
The first products driving this early adoption are direct mail, transactional (bills, statements), and books. The driving force for books is the cost, which is cheaper for inkjet at shorter runs. The crossover point is determined by existing internal costs, but some are saying it is between 1,000-5,000 books.
With direct mail and transactional printing, the driving force is a combination of cheaper cost for color, a workflow that is streamlined, and the ability to personalize the direct mail or credit card bill with targeted messages. Many of the companies that print these documents use a hybrid printing strategy that starts with offset four-color shells that are stored and then overprinted with high speed, black-and-white toner devices. The problem is the “carry costs” associated with this workflow, which can be eliminated by a “white paper in-finished product out” workflow.
What do you think? Is inkjet production printing ready for prime time?
