Headlines about S&P downgrading US Gov't debt shake me to the core this morning, and I know owners of print and graphic communications companies are concerned in their own way too. For me, this is the economic reality-changer that reminds me of how 9-11 was the national security reality-changer nearly ten years ago.
M&A valuation as well as other investment analysis is based on concepts of risk and return. The pillar of these concepts is that U.S. treasury bills are "riskless". That foundation has been cracked today, a shocking reality despite all the news leading up to the event itself.
I flashback to my years as a young attorney, working 90 hours a week at a law firm in New York City. I vividly recall going to a book store that no longer exists to read about finance so I could understand what was behind all those mid-1980s Wall Street M&A deals that fueled my employment. Thumbing through Barron's Business Review Series which I've kept on my desk for the next 25 years and two subsequent careers, I learned about risk and return on investment.
"If the investment has no chance of loss and is made for a very short period, it is called riskless," it says on page 65. "The riskless rate is the interest rate paid on assets that have a risk-free or sure return, like U.S. treasury bills which come due in 90 days and are backed by the federal government's guarantee to pay on maturity."
The concept that investors have to be rewarded with a "risk premium" for investment in assets with escalating risk is fundamental to finance, investment, and business valuation, whether the assets are real estate, shares of a publiclly-traded company or a partnership share of a privately-held printing company. Tangible assets such as digital printing devices or sheet-fed offset presses, as well as intangible assets such as customer relationships all go under the valuation microscope to ascertain the risk-reward balance as they compare to "riskless" investments such as U.S. Treasury debt.
Now that "riskless" has new meaning, it will be important for NAPL clients to check with us over the next 12 months or so to ascertain the extent to which today's economic news affects valuation of printing companies, appraisal of equipment, and valuation of intangible assets.
I could go further into examining the correlation between US Gov't debt ratings and the impact on the printing industry, but I leave all of that to my NAPL colleague, Andy Paparozzi and his team. For me, I'll start by adjusting the thinking that has been embedded in literally hundreds of my clients business valuations and M&A advisory projects over the years, that the "risk free" investment return is based on U.S. treasury bills.